What kind of predicament and development situation will the communication industry face in 2019
时间：2019-09-18 16:26
Various official statistics have not been released, but leaked information from various regions has shown that the telecommunications industry in some provinces and municipalities as a whole fell into negative growth. Recently, there have been unconfirmed rumors that some provincial-level companies of an elephant-class operator have started to borrow salaries from Banks. With traffic already the largest source of revenue in the communications industry, can traffic solve operators' revenue anxiety?
1. How will the communication industry develop in 2019
At the end of last year, the ministry of industry and information technology (miit) held a 2019 national conference on industry and information technology in Beijing, which identified several deployment plans that are crucial to the communications industry, including 5G commercialization, speed increase and fee reduction. From various public sources, we do not yet know the official forecast of the specific business development trend of the communications industry in 2019. But here's a hint. Guangdong communications administration recently held a working meeting in 2019, proposing the industry development target in 2019: it is expected to complete the total telecommunications business of 1.3576 trillion yuan, up 80% year-on-year; Revenue of telecom business reached 180 billion yuan, up 4% year on year; The revenue of value-added telecom enterprises above the designated scale reached 336.4 billion yuan, up 18% year on year. The number of fixed broadband users reached 38.8 million, and the number of optical fiber access users reached 36.5 million, among which 92% were users over 50M and 80% were users over 100M. Over 22 million IPTV users and 19 million 4K users.
The status of guangdong's economic volume and economic activity are self-evident, so is the status and influence of guangdong's communication industry in China. The boom and bust of communication industry is closely related to the growth rate and activity of local economy. As a student with excellent performance in the national communication industry, the output index of guangdong should be higher than the national average, if not in the top 10. Guangdong communications administration expects total telecom business in 2019 to grow 80 percent year on year and revenue from telecom business to grow 4 percent year on year. Thus, the national average of these two growth rates should be lower or at least not higher than guangdong's. And what about its 4% revenue growth target, supported by 80% year-over-year volume growth? We can draw broad conclusions from the 2018 data. From January to November 2018, China's telecom business totaled 5,784.4 billion yuan, up 139.2% year on year. During the same period, the accumulated revenue of telecom business reached 119.1 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year. Obviously, volume growth of nearly 140% in 2018 only led to revenue growth of 2.9% in 2018. In addition, the regulatory authorities have made it clear that they will continue to speed up and reduce fees in 2019. Since then, we are not sure whether guangdong can meet its expectations. However, from the perspective of the whole country, combined with the actual experience in 2018, if the communication industry also relies on the 80% growth rate of business volume in 2019, it may be difficult to support the 4% growth of business revenue.
What kind of predicament and development situation will the communication industry face in 2019
Traffic business contributes nearly half of the revenue of the communications industry
According to the data released by the ministry of industry and information technology up to the end of November last year, we can know that in the first 11 months of last year, the cumulative revenue of mobile communication business reached 841.7 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, accounting for 70.3% of the revenue of telecom business. In the same period, mobile data and mobile Internet business revenue accumulated 555.4 billion yuan, up 10.5% year on year. Mobile data and mobile Internet business revenue accounted for 46.4% of telecom business revenue, accounting for nearly half. According to the above data, we can also know that mobile data and mobile Internet business revenue accounted for 66% of mobile communication business revenue. In general, no matter in the proportion of communication service revenue, or in the proportion of mobile communication revenue, traffic is already the business with the largest share contribution.
What kind of predicament and development situation will the communication industry face in 2019
From the point of view of the whole industry, the traffic business is really played an important role. But, specific to operator each enterprise, can differ somewhat again. According to calculations made public in the first half of last year, only China mobile's traffic revenue at that time accounted for more than 50%. Even though China unicom and China telecom are still far away from half of their traffic revenue, their traffic business is also the biggest contributor to revenue of each individual business. Detailed data can be seen in the table below. However, the continuous decline of traffic unit price and the sluggish growth of traffic business volume will certainly bring huge pressure to the increase of revenue of the communication industry, especially the traffic accounted for the highest revenue ratio of China mobile.
What kind of predicament and development situation will the communication industry face in 2019
Third, "reducing burdens" and "adjusting" should be key words in 2019
In 2018, the regulatory policy of speeding up fee reduction, which clarified the bottom line of fee reduction, greatly enhanced the sense of customer acquisition, but also promoted the rapid price reduction in the communication industry. Under the influence of the concept of "card slot", in order to obtain the incremental user scale, the three major operators broke through the limits of population size and natural growth rate and developed a large number of new users with low value by relying on various bottomless prices with almost no consideration of quality. This actually has the suspicion that increases the burden of operator further, especially to traffic management. The percentage of "new" customers that operators rely on for cheap "swipe" is not very high, so retention and revenue contribute very little besides traffic usage. The internal analysis of the operators also put forward several times that the new expenditure and cost can not bring in the corresponding revenue, meaning or have admitted that the new is actually a loss.
According to our observation, most provincial and municipal companies of operators have realized the importance of stock operation and are actively arranging stock operation. But here we add two pieces of advice, that is, the first is to dare to reduce the burden, dare to squeeze water; The second is to transfer the assessment of user scale (including stock scale and net increase scale) to the assessment of business revenue, preferably financial business revenue. No one can say that the communication industry has no water, a squeeze is good for the health of the industry. Save the money to acquire "moisture" users, and invest in the stock user operation and new business market cultivation. 2019 will be the first year of 5G commercial use, and various new opportunities for operators require them to adjust their previous irrational behaviors. Spending on "enter an item of expenditure in the accounts income" cannot support the huge investment in 5G. You can think carefully about the helplessness revealed by netizens circulating on the Internet recently about the "5G investment strategy of China unicom" mentioned in the "2G withdrawal, 3G replacement, 4G delay and 5G delay".
Iv. "stand alone" needs to be transformed into "blossom in more spots"
In each individual business of communication industry, there is no doubt that traffic has played a "unique" role. But it is this pivotal position that operators are increasingly at a loss. One of the biggest reasons is the lack of "multi-point flowering" business continuity. Traffic, voice, broadband, SMS and dedicated information services (including the Internet of things) have become major sources of revenue. In the above five main business, SMS maintained a positive growth of more than 5%; Broadband and dedicated line revenue overall maintained a positive growth; Voice shows a big step of negative growth, superimposed user growth after the impact of the real decline or more than 15 percent. But as we all know, in fact, compared with the traffic unit price, the voice unit price did not show a significant reduction. Therefore, the reason why the revenue contribution of voice service is reduced so much is that the operators allow voice service to be replaced by OTT services like WeChat in order to pursue traffic. It is not so much that the voice service is dead, but rather that the operators have voluntarily given up the operation of the voice. Even so, the carrier expected traffic after a variety of price cuts did not appear "small profits" expected.
It is clear that operators will face great pressure in 2019 if they rely on traffic alone. In the case that they cannot create new value for users, "multi-blossom" has become an inevitable choice. Getting all the supporting businesses to show positive growth may be the best way to "blossom". Reducing the decline in voice, if not in positive growth, has supported overall revenue growth. Traffic, short message, broadband and special line services will maintain a high probability of positive revenue growth, so the "multi-point bloom" has mainly focused on the voice business, which still accounts for a high proportion of current revenue. Of course, the development of the Internet of things is already very rapid, but also the future focus of business and cash cattle, 2019 needs key support.
Faced with a sharp drop in revenue and negative industry growth in more than a dozen provinces, traffic cannot solve the anxiety of operator revenue growth. In anticipation of a cure, operators will need to continually adjust their business philosophy and plan their revenue paths accordingly.
